摩根大通近期發(fā)布了一篇關于美股宏觀經(jīng)濟、指數(shù)點位和大類資產(chǎn)趨勢的研究報告。該報告指出，對于2023Q1的觀點處于中性和看漲之間，市場將繼續(xù)由FICC（編者注：固定收益產(chǎn)品、外匯和大宗商品及衍生品）驅動。標普500指數(shù)雖然出現(xiàn)反彈，但在回到4000點之后，可能再次出現(xiàn)賣壓，所以價值、防御性和質(zhì)量仍是下一步的交易原則。
而摩根大通做出這一判斷的原因在于，預期通貨膨脹提升或維持不變——中國防疫政策邊際調(diào)整之后，對大宗商品需求再次上漲，需求提升推高價格。（編者注：中國12月財新服務業(yè)PMI 48，預期 46.8，前值 46.7。中國12月財新綜合PMI 48.3，前值 47）
(資料圖片)
對于具體的資產(chǎn)類型，摩根大通建議關注醫(yī)藥、能源板塊，以及黃金；看空科技板塊。
◆看多理由：加息放緩抑制美元匯率、美債利率，進而市場流動性修復
◆看空理由：中國需求復蘇推高商品價格，支撐通脹數(shù)據(jù)
◆關鍵指標：美元指數(shù)、ISM、標普500的EPS估值情況、市場資金流向
◆美股研判：關注醫(yī)藥、能源板塊，黃金；看空科技板塊
下面是翻譯注釋及原文：
圖注：摩根大通基于特定條件，將后市分為看漲、基準、看跌3檔走勢的情況假設
包括上述變量，但主要取決于美聯(lián)儲加息腳步放緩，表現(xiàn)為美元走弱，債券收益率高位試探難以為繼。此外，隨著通脹消退，勞動力市場的強勁表現(xiàn)或有助于提振經(jīng)濟。
除了上述變量外，關鍵是通貨膨脹率，要么走高，要么維持在這些水平。最有可能出現(xiàn)的情況是，中國的重新開放比預期的更強勁，這會推高大宗商品價格，尤其是在能源領域，從而在不放松勞動力市場的情況下削減支出。
基于【噪聲和策略倉位監(jiān)測工具】發(fā)出的信號，目前市場的趨勢偏向中立。要變得更加樂觀，需要出現(xiàn)這些量化信號：
1）基本面改善，如美元走弱，ISM指數(shù)強勁，或積極的利潤修正；
2）頭寸之間的博弈形勢。
總體而言，預期介于基本情況和看漲情況之間。
2023Q1可能仍然具有挑戰(zhàn)性，因為美聯(lián)儲很活躍，但緊縮周期已接近尾聲，宏觀數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)出的信號喜憂參半。通脹正在消退，但勞動力市場的正?；瑥亩苊饷缆?lián)儲加息調(diào)控，似乎不太可能在2023年實現(xiàn)。從另一個角度來看，新冠疫情對勞動力供應造成了結構性阻力，這在未來12個月不太可能改變。
也就是說，2023Q1似乎會繼續(xù)由FICC驅動市場。鑒于美元和債券收益率有可能走高，實際收益率進一步走高，收益率曲線進一步趨平，我們保持謹慎看法。
如果可能的話，采取市場中性的方法，并將賣出將標準普爾指數(shù)帶至4000點水位線的任何反彈。價值、防御性和質(zhì)量因素的組合將主導我們的多頭。
從行業(yè)角度來看，可以考慮做多能源和醫(yī)療保健股。
能源方面，WTI近期處于75-90美元區(qū)間的底部附近，我們傾向于持有能源股；然而，能源ETF和WTI之間的價差在2022Q4擴大（編者注：參考下圖），在能源在走高之前，這個價差可能會出現(xiàn)一些壓縮。
對于空頭而言，科技股可能仍將面臨挑戰(zhàn)，尤其是無利可圖的科技股和半科技股可能繼續(xù)疲弱，因為它們從稀缺轉向過剩。
房地產(chǎn)/房地產(chǎn)投資信托基金是另一個中期路徑較低的領域。
另外，人們對央行儲備和支付系統(tǒng)有足夠的擔憂，因此在今年伊始，黃金成為許多人最青睞的投資之一。黃金傾向于與實際收益率反向移動，雖然這種關系在2022Q4出現(xiàn)了背離（編者注：參考下圖），但可能會出現(xiàn)均值回歸。Natasha Kaneva和她的團隊預計今年黃金均價為1785美元，較上周五收盤下跌2%。
◆BULL CASE: includes the above elements but is largely predicated on a less aggressive Fed that manifests in a weaker USD and bond yields that fail to retest highs. Further, the strength of labor markets as inflation dissipates should help bolster growth.
◆BEAR CASE: in addition to the above variables, the key here is inflation that either moves higher or stays constant around these levels. The most likely scenario is a stronger than expected Chinese reopening which increases commodity prices, especially in the Energy complex, that cuts spending without loosening the labor market.
◆DA&A QUANT VIEW: is currently Neutral based on our Signal from the Noise and Tactical Positioning monitors. To get more bullish, those quant signals would need to see either (i) improved fundamentals such as a weaker USD, strong ISM, or positive earnings revisions Or (i) an improvement in the positioning backdrop.
◆US MKT INTEL VIEW: sits between the base case and the bull case. Q1 is likely to remain challenging with the Fed active, but nearing the end of the tightening cycle, with macro data given mixed signals. Inflation is dissipating but if we need labor markets to normalize to push the Fed firmly on the sidelines, that seems unlikely to come to fruition in 2023. Thought differently, COVID created a structural headwind to labor supply which is unlikely to change over the next 12 months. That said, Q1 seems to be another quarter where Equities are driven by FICC markets. Given the potential for USD and bond yields to move higher, a further move higher in real yields, and a further flattening of the yield curve we maintain our cautious View. If possible, a market-neutral approach and would sell any rally that takes the SPx to / through the 4k level. A combination of Value, Defensive, and Quality factors is what would dominate our longs. From a sector perspective, consider longs in Energy and Healthcare. Regarding Energy, with WTI trading near the bottom of its $75-$90 near-term range, we like owning Energy Equities ; though, the spread between Energy ETFs and WTI broaden over 22Q4 which could see some compression before the group moves higher. For shorts, Tech is likely to remain challenged especially unprofitable Tech and Semis may continue their weakness as scarcity transforms to surplus. Real Estate / REITs are another area where the medium-term path is lower.
◆Separately, there is enough concern over central bank reserves and payment systems that gold is among many people" s favorite investments as we launch the year. Gold tends to move inversely to real yields, but that relationship has diverged in 22Q4, so we may see some mean-reversion. Natasha Kaneva and team see gold averaging $1785 this year, -2% from Friday" s close.
-END-
關注作者>>